Top Value Stocks For 2015: January 2014

Friday, January 31, 2014

Watch: Tebow stars in T-Mobile Super Bowl ad

It's a quarterback sneak.

In a surprise move, T-Mobile will announce Friday that former New York Jets Quarterback Tim Tebow will star in two of its Super Bowl XLVIII ads.

And there's an unexpected twist in T-Mobile's ad play: Tebow was in a 2010 Big Game commercial, but this T-Mobile spot is a sharp contrast with ad for conservative Christian advocacy group Focus on the Family that featured Tebow and his mom.

In these two 30-second commercials, he takes a comic turn with wild, zany roles, all poking fun at the fact that he doesn't have a National Football League contract -- and at cell-phone providers that require contracts. Without an allegiance to one team, or even one profession, he is able to take on gigs such as an obstetrician, a bull rider and a rock star.

These ads allow him to be "self-deprecating," he says, as well as to "do something that is outside of your comfort zone."

STORIES: Check out more Super Bowl ad news

In playing these over-the-top characters, Tebow says he's able to show the public a humorous side "that family and friends know better."

In addition to the Tebow ads, T-Mobile will run a 30-second commercial that has no actors. That ad is all text and encourages consumers to break ties with their current carrier and to join T-Mobile, which doesn't require contracts.

The Big Game big media buy is part of the T-Mobile's strategy to boost brand awareness, as well as promote the fact that now will pay the termination charges from existing contracts with rival carrier for consumers who want to switch to T-Mobile.

Tim Tebow take on over-the-top roles in two T-Mobile Super Bowl commercials(Photo: Photo from ad shot by Stacy Wall, Imperial Woodpecker Prod.)

The Tebow ads are lighthearted. But some of T-Mobile's other advertising has been much more antagonistic toward competitors. The company, which is the nation's fourth-largest carrier, frequently takes on AT&T directly. It will do that again on Sunday in a pre-game ad that will say "move over AT&T."

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STORY: T-Mobile discloses new plan at CES

"The Super Bowl is not for every brand, but it's consistent with what we are trying to do," says T-Mobile CMO Mike Sievert. "We're a brand that is bold and brash."

Yet, that aggressive approach has raised concerns with the National Advertising Division, which is administered by the Council of Better Business Bureaus. The NAD says that some of the analysis that T-Mobile used to make claims of better service than AT&T were "flawed" and that T-Mobile should modify, and even discontinue, some of its advertising approaches.

Peter DeLuca, T-Mobile senior vice president of brand communications, defends its strategy.

"I'm the head of advertising here," he says. "I don't think any of my advertising is deceptive."

As for the upcoming Super Bowl ads, DeLuca says the thinking was "go big or go home."

Regarding for the day's gridiron action, Tebow was noncommittal when asked if he'll root for the Broncos or the Seattle Seahawks.

He says he has "good friends on both teams -- obviously a few more on Denver," where he played in 2010 and 2011, but his overriding hope is for all to "play well."

For his own football future, Tebow says this: "I'm still working hard every single day to improve as a quarterback and I'm looking forward to whatever opportunities are ! there." tebow

Tim Tebow as a rodeo rider in a T-Mobile ad.(Photo: T-Mobile)

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015

Given the overall lack of good news from companies going into the fourth quarter, the fact that this company has even the slightest bit of positive guidance is noteworthy, writes MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, also of Jubak's Picks.

I wouldn't exactly call it super enthusiastic guidance, but this quarter, when so few companies have anything good to say about their business for the fourth quarter, even Xylem's (XYL) tepid enthusiasm stands out.

On October 29, Xylem reported earnings of 39 cents a share for the third quarter. That was (barely) above last year's 38 cents a share for the quarter, and 3 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus. Taking out so-called one-time charges (for restructuring and the like), Xylem reported earnings of 49 cents a share. Revenue climbed 4% year to year to $965 million. Wall Street had projected revenue of $919 million.

And then came that tepid but positive guidance. Market conditions are modestly improving with higher sales in northern and central Europe, offsetting lower spending on water infrastructure in southern Europe. Emerging markets, such as China, are helping drive revenue growth, said CEO Steve Loranger. (That's the kindest thing I've heard about China this earnings season. The Chinese government has announced a big program to improve water quality that will result in more spending on the water treatment and water transportation gear that Xylem sells.) The company also sees continued cost cutting adding to earnings.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Rentrak Corporation(RENT)

Rentrak Corporation, an information management company, provides content measurement and analytical services to companies in the entertainment industry. The company delivers content performance data for various entertainment platforms and media technologies, including television, theatrical, home entertainment, mobile, and broadband video. It operates in two divisions, Home Entertainment, and Advanced Media and Information. The Home Entertainment division delivers home entertainment content products, such as DVDs and blue-ray discs; and offers related rental and sales information for the content to home video specialty stores and other retailers in the United States and Canada. It leases products from various suppliers, including motion picture studios; and retailers sublease and rent these products to consumers. This division also includes direct revenue sharing (DRS) services, which encompasses the collection, tracking, auditing, and reporting of transaction and revenue data generated by DRS retailers to its respective DRS clients. The AMI division offers Essentials Suite of business information services. This division?s Essentials Suite software and services provide data collection, management, analysis, and reporting functions. It also collects and process data from across 26 countries. This division has operations in California, New York, Florida, the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, France, Mexico, Argentina, Spain, and Russia. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon with additional offices in Los Angeles, New York City, Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Argentina, Australia, France, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Seth Jayson]
Rentrak (Nasdaq: RENT ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on June 13. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Rentrak's revenues will expand 12.1% and EPS will turn positive
[By Sean Williams]
On the wrong track
Small-cap Rentrak (NASDAQ: RENT ) has done quite well for itself and shareholders over the past 12 months. As a marketing and entertainment information provider to the TV, movie, and advertising industry, Rentrak has witnessed its share price rise as the outlook for the overall economy continues to improve. But beyond the surface, Rentrak looks like a brutally overpriced research and information company with few growth catalysts.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Net 1 UEPS Technologies Inc.(UEPS)

Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides payment solutions and transaction processing services primarily in South Africa, Korea, and Europe. It offers universal electronic payment system (UEPS), a smart-card based alternative payment system for the unbanked and underbanked populations of developing economies. The company?s UEPS system uses secure smart cards that operate in real time but offline, which allows users to enter into transactions at any time with other card holders even in the remote areas; and can be used for banking, health care management, international money transfers, voting, and identification. It provides technology that is used in state pension and welfare payments by the South African government; processes debit and credit card payment transactions for retailers, utilities, medical-related claim service customers, and banks, as well as bill payments and prepaid electricity for bill issuers and local councils; and offers mobile telephone top-up transactions for mobile carriers. The company also offers transaction processing, and financial and clinical risk management solutions; an on-line real-time management system for healthcare transactions; smart card accounts, primarily social welfare grant beneficiaries; and short-term loans and life insurance products to card holders through its smart card delivery channel, as well as processes third-party payroll payments for employees. In addition, it markets, sells, and implements the UEPS; and develops and provides Prism secure transaction technology, solutions, and services, as well as involves in hardware sales and license of the DUET system. Further, the company undertakes smart card system implementation projects; offers hardware, SIM cards, point of sale terminals, cryptography services, and SIM card and other software licenses; and rents hardware to merchants. Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Johannes burg, South Africa.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Paul Ausick]
Big earnings movers: Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) is down 12.9% at $18.90 after a decent earnings reports was spoiled by a weak outlook<<LINK>>. Net 1 UEPS Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: UEPS) is up 46.6% at $10.69 after beating estimates on EPS and revenues, raising its outlook for the third quarter, and posting a new 52-week high of $11.20. Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) is down 20.2% at $8.76, following a new 52-week low of $8.66, after a big earnings miss.

Best Casino Stocks To Watch For 2015: OraSure Technologies Inc.(OSUR)

OraSure Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and sells oral fluid diagnostic products and specimen collection devices in the United States and internationally. It also manufactures and sells medical devices used for the removal of benign skin lesions by cryosurgery or freezing. The company offers OraQuick ADVANCE HIV-1/2, a point-of-care qualitative test for antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 and type 2; OraQuick HCV, a point-of-care qualitative test for antibodies to the hepatitis C virus; OraSure QuickFlu Rapid Flu A&B Test, a point-of-care qualitative test for antibodies to influenza Types A and B, including H1N1 infections; OraSure, an oral fluid collection device for the detection of antibodies to HIV-1 in an oral fluid sample in a laboratory setting; and Intercept, an oral fluid collection device for oral fluid drugs of abuse testing in a laboratory setting. In addition, it provides MICRO-PLATE DOA Assays that are used to detect the drugs in an oral fluid sample collected with intercept device; cryosurgical freezing systems for the removal of warts and other benign skin lesions; and cryosurgical systems for the removal of common and plantar warts. Further, OraSure Technologies sells immunoassay tests and reagents for insurance risk assessment, substance abuse testing, and forensic toxicology applications; an oral fluid Western blot HIV-1 confirmatory test for confirming positive HIV-1 test results obtained from the use of OraSure collection device; and Q.E.D., a point-of-care saliva alcohol test. The company sells its products through direct sales, strategic collaborations, and distributors to clinical laboratories, hospitals, clinics, community-based and other public health organizations, distributors, government agencies, physicians? offices, and commercial and industrial entities. It has collaboration agreement with Merck & Co. Inc. OraSure Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is based in Beth lehem, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Keith Speights]
Progress has also been made on the diagnostic front. The FDA approved OraSure Technologies' (NASDAQ: OSUR ) OraQuick home HIV test in July 2012. OraQuick allows an individual to use a mouth swab and find out the results within 40 minutes. The test hasn't exactly leaped off store shelves as of yet, though. OraSure reported only $1.5 million in gross sales for the OraQuick home test during the most recent quarter.
[By Seth Jayson]
OraSure Technologies (Nasdaq: OSUR ) reported earnings on May 8. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), OraSure Technologies beat slightly on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.
[By Sam Collins]
OraSure Technologies (OSUR) — This small-cap company develops, manufactures and markets oral fluid diagnostic products and specimen collection devices using its proprietary oral fluid technologies.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)

MicroStrategy Incorporated provides enterprise software platforms for business intelligence (BI), and mobile and social intelligence applications worldwide. The company offers MicroStrategy 9, an integrated BI platform that enables businesses to make business decisions. The MicroStrategy 9 platform?s product components comprise Intelligence Server, a foundation for the BI platform; Report Services, a reporting engine delivering production and operational reports, managed metrics reports, and interactive dashboards; OLAP Services that allows Web and desktop users to manipulate Intelligent Cubes databases; Web, a Web interface providing query, reporting, and analysis; Distribution Services that offers automated report and dashboard distribution; Office, which enables Microsoft Office users to create, run, edit, and format MicroStrategy report; and Desktop that provide users access to data through analytical applications. The MicroStrategy 9 platform?s product components al so include Architect, whose data sources are modeled through an intuitive graphical user interface; SDK to integrate MicroStrategy 9 features and functionality into any application on multiple platforms; Integrity Manager to compare and verify reports? consistency; Command Manager that automates MicroStrategy administrative tasks; Enterprise Manager to provide prebuilt reports and dashboards; Object Manager that allows administrators to manage disparate and distributed environments; MultiSource Option allowing users to report, analyze, and monitor data; Transaction Services that provides write-back capabilities; and Clustering Option, a plug-and-play add-on to Intelligence Server. The company also offers technical support, consulting, education, and cloud-based solutions. It serves retail, communications, financial services, insurance, healthcare, manufacturing, technology, consumer goods, and public services industries. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Tim Beyers and Erin Miller]
Importantly, the BI sector as a whole isn't seeing gains. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR ) fell as much as Qlik gained on a 6% decline in revenues in the most recent quarter. Qlik, by contrast, reported a 22% rise in revenue and told analysts to expect another 20% or better bump in the quarter.
[By John Udovich]
Yesterday, small cap business intelligence stock MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR) surged 18.44%�after reporting better-than-expected third quarter earnings ��meaning it might be a good idea to take a closer look at it�along with�small cap peers Actuate Corporation (NASDAQ: BIRT) and Qlik Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: QLIK) to see what they might offer small cap investors. After all, everyone is being inundated with huge amounts of data from multiple sources, but its the following small cap stocks that provide software platforms to help customers try to make sense of it all:�

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: ViroPharma Incorporated(VPHM)

ViroPharma Incorporated, a biotechnology company, develops and commercializes therapeutic products that address serious diseases in the United States and internationally. It focuses on developing products used by physician specialists or in hospital settings. The company markets and sells Cinryze, a C1 esterase inhibitor therapy for the routine prophylaxis against angioedema attacks in adolescent and adult patients with hereditary angioedema, a life-threatening genetic disorder; and Vancocin HCl capsule, an oral capsule formulation for the treatment of C. difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) and to treat enterocolitis caused by staphylococcus aureus, including methicillin-resistant strains. It also offers Plenadren, an orphan drug for treatment of adrenal insufficiency in adults; Buccolam, a oromucosal solution for treatment of prolonged, acute, and convulsive seizures in infants, toddlers, children, and adolescents; and maribavir, an antiviral compound for the treatment o f CMV disease through a license agreement with GlaxoSmithKline. The company?s primary development programs include Cinryze, a C1 esterase inhibitor for management of hereditary angioedema; and VP 20621, a non-toxigenic strain of C. difficile. Its clinical stage drug candidate comprises VP-20629 for the treatment of Friedreich?s Ataxia. The company sells its products directly to wholesale drug distributors and specialty pharmacies/distributors. ViroPharma Incorporated was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Exton, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Sara Sjolin]
Shares of Shire (UK:SHP) �climbed 0.9% after the drug maker said it is buying rare-disease company ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) �for $4.2 billion, or $50 a share. ViroPharma jumped 25% in the U.S.
[By John Udovich]
Small cap orphan drug stocks Zalicus Inc (NASDAQ: ZLCS), Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ: OMER) and Viropharma Inc (NASDAQ: VPHM) have been active lately thanks to good news about their orphan drug treatments. In case you aren�� familiar with the term, orphan drug designation by the FDA is granted for drugs targeting conditions affecting 200,000 or fewer US patients annually that are expected to provide significant therapeutic advantage over existing treatments. The designation will also qualify companies for benefits across all stages of drug development, such as�accelerated approval processes, seven years of market exclusivity�after marketing approval, tax credits on�any US�clinical trials, grants and waiver of certain administrative fees.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Ixia(XXIA)

Ixia supplies converged network and application performance testing solutions in the United States and internationally. It designs and validates a range of Internet protocol (IP) and third generation/long-term evolution networking equipment. The company?s solutions generate realistic traffic to stress routers, switches, and converged network appliances. It provides converged IP test systems and services for wireless and wired infrastructures and services. Ixia serves network equipment manufacturers, service providers, enterprises, and government agencies. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Evan Niu, CFA]
What: Shares of Ixia (NASDAQ: XXIA ) got crushed today, down by 25% at the low, after the company announced preliminary results.

So what: Revenue in the second quarter is expected in the range of $114 million to $116 million, shy of Ixia's previous guidance that was calling for $119 million to $122 million. The silver lining was that revenue from recent acquisitions is expected at the high end of guidance of $28 million to $32 million.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Rainmaker Mining Corp (RMG.V)

Rainmaker Mining Corp., an exploration stage company, engages in the exploration, development, and exploitation of mineral and energy related resource properties primarily in Canada. It holds interests in 7 uranium claims covering an area of 21,291 hectares located along the southern margin of the Athabasca Basin, Saskatchewan; and 100% interest in the Pilot Harbour Property comprising 42 claims located in the Sault St. Marie Mining Division of Ontario. The company was formerly known as Thunder Sword Resources Inc. and changed its name to Rainmaker Mining Corp. on November 20, 2009. Rainmaker Mining Corp. was founded in 1979 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Grid Petroleum Corp (GRPR)

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Rollins Inc. (ROL)

Rollins, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides pest and termite control services to residential and commercial customers in North America. It offers pest control services, and protection against termite damage, rodents, and insects to homes and businesses, including hotels, food service establishments, food manufacturers, retailers, and transportation companies. The company also provides pest management and sanitation services and products to the food and commodity industries. It operates under the brand names of Orkin and PCO Services brand names, as well as under the Acurid service mark. The company also offers its services in Central America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, Asia, the Mediterranean, and Europe. As of December 31, 2010, it had 56 domestic franchises and 16 international franchises. The company, formerly known as Rollins Broadcasting, Inc., was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Alex Planes]
A new kind of buyout
The first leveraged buyout in American history �took place on June 19, 1964, when Rollins Broadcasting (NYSE: ROL ) made a $62.4 million bid to acquire nationwide exterminator Orkin. The deal, later called "Jonah swallowing the whale" by BusinessWeek, saw a company with $7.9 million in annual revenue and $600,000 in annual net income put up virtually none of its own money to acquire a company with $37.3 million in annual revenue and $3 million in annual net income. Rollins/Orkin (the pairing has worked out for nearly five decades) quotes the particulars of the deal on its website:
[By Rich Duprey]
Pest control service provider�Rollins (NYSE: ROL ) announced yesterday its third-quarter dividend of $0.09 per share, the same rate it's paid for the past two quarters after raising the payout 12.5% from $0.08 per share.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Onstream Media Corporation(ONSM)

Onstream Media Corporation provides online services of live and on-demand corporate audio and Web communications, virtual event technology, and social media marketing primarily to corporate, education, and government customers in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Digital Media Services Group, and Audio and Web Conferencing Services Group. The Digital Media Services Group segment provides corporate-oriented and Web-based media services to the corporate market, including live audio and video Webcasting, and on-demand audio and video streaming for any business, government, and educational entities; and online subscription based service that comprises access to enabling technologies and features for clients to acquire, store, index, secure, manage, distribute, and transform digital assets into saleable commodities. This segment also offers a video ingestion and flash encoder that could be used by its clients on a stand-alone basis or in conjunction with the Digital Media Services Platform; and automated and manual encoding and editorial services for processing digital media, using technologies and processes that allow online search, retrieval, and streaming of media, including photos, videos, audio, engineering specs, architectural plans, and Web pages. The Audio and Web Conferencing Services Group segment provides reservationless and operator-assisted audio and Web conferencing services; and connectivity within the entertainment and advertising industries through its managed network, which encompasses production and post-production companies, advertisers, producers, directors, and talent. Onstream Media Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Pompano Beach, Florida.

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Buy For 2015: Homeloans Ltd (HOM.AX)

Homeloans Limited engages in the mortgage origination and management of home loans in Australia. The company originates residential mortgages through external mortgage brokers, satellite offices, and internal consultants. It is also involved in the securitization of mortgages through the residential mortgage trust, a special purpose vehicle used to issue residential mortgage backed securities. In addition, the company offers various types of home loans, including variable rate, fixed rate, split, lo doc, bridging, interest only, standard, and line of credit home loans. Further, it provides home loans for building and renovating, refinancing and debt consolidating, and investing activities, as well as for first home buyers and self employed borrowers. Additionally, the company offers various insurance policies comprising home and contents, motor vehicle, landlords, and life insurance policies. Homeloans Limited was founded in 1985 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Higher gains forecast in Tuesday’s jobs report

Economists say the employment market likely picked up a bit last month, estimating the government will report Tuesday that 180,000 jobs were added.

Economists' consensus estimate is that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.3%.

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was originally scheduled to be released Oct. 4 but it was delayed by the federal government shutdown.

Some economists have said that several signs last month pointed to modest a pick-up in job gains, including initial job claims — a good gauge of layoffs — that fell to a post-recession low and a solid increase in manufacturing activity.

But Paul Edelstein of IHS Global Insight says school teachers in many regions returned to work earlier than usual in August, inflating that month's tally of government job gains (to 17,000) but depressing September's totals.

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He estimates that the private sector added 175,000 jobs last month but federal, state and local governments cut 20,000 for a net addition of 155,000.

"We're looking for a bit of payback," he says.

A survey released early this month by private payroll processor ADP estimated that businesses added 166,000 jobs in September.

Job growth slowed to an average monthly pace of 148,000 from June through August from about 200,000 the first five months of the year. Economists generally expect payroll gains to accelerate next year as the effects of federal spending cuts and a payroll tax increase fade.

Monday, January 27, 2014

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 Earnings Preview: Charging Past Expectations

After spending most of the year as one of Wall Street's darlings, Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) has sputtered as of late. A YouTube video of burning Model S and a broker downgrade halted the electric-vehicle (EV) maker's momentum as the stock was approaching two-bills ($200).

TSLA will have a chance to reverse course and super-charge its stock price next Tuesday. The NASDAQ 100 member will post its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2013, after market close on Tuesday, November 5, 2013. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release via Marketwire containing a link to the third quarter 2013 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Standard Time (5:30pm Eastern Standard Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

Wall Street anticipates that the green consumer goods company will make a profit of $0.11 per share for the quarter. iStock expects TSLA to top Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $0.14, a three cent bullish surprise.

Tesla Motors develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and electric vehicle powertrain components. The company also provides services for the development of electric powertrain systems and components, and sells electric powertrain components to other automotive manufacturers. It markets and sells its vehicles through Tesla stores, as well as over the Internet.

There is a ton of speculation on the web based on VIN numbers, a battery order from Panasonic, and various other clues. We'll run through a few scenarios and see if we can create an iStock estimate for how many Model S cars Tesla sold in July, August and September in total.

Our first stop will be Google Trends. United States search volume intensity for the keyword "Model S" increased 7.5% in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. According to Q2's 10-Q, Tesla sold a little more than 5,150 Model S EVs in t! he quarter. Simple math says 7.5% more than 5,150 is 5,536 cars. We'll round up to 5,600.

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iStock calculates an average price of $77,968 in the second quarter. In the 10-Q referenced above, management said, "We expect average selling price to rise significantly during the third quarter of 2013 due to the delivery of European Signature Series vehicles, and a higher mix of 85 kWh cars and other options."

How do you define "significantly"? For us, it starts at 10%. So, we have 5,600 cars and an average selling price of $85,765. And the calculator says $474,815,138 in auto sales for Q3. Add in another $3 million or so for development services and North American revenue could come in around $477.82 million, which is well below the consensus revenue estimate of $534.64 million.

Ahhh, but there is more, Tesla "started European deliveries of the Model S in August." To make up the difference using our hypothetical average selling price, Tesla needs to sell 662 Model Ss in Europe.

Can they get there? How this for a clue. The ibtimes.com reports, "According to Norway's auto association, the OFV, Tesla delivered 616 units last month [September], representing just over 5 percent of all car and light truck sales in the affluent country of 5 million people.

Let's take a look at another tidbit from ibtimes.com, "A contributor to the Tesla's Forum page identified as Craig Froehle updated his Model S VIN data. As of Thursday [October 10, 2013] the data suggest there are at least 25,822 Model S VINs, excluding European identification numbers assigned to cars being produced in Telsa's Holland factory. Tesla has said it has sold 12,550 Model S sedans between June 2012, when the car debuted, to June of this year. This leaves 13,272 units that, according to this customer-provided data, have been assigned VINs."

From July 1 through October 10 is 102 days. Divide 13,272 by 1! 02 and we! get an average of 130 cars a day. Multiple that by 92 days in Q3 and we arrive at 11,970 Model S orders in the third quarter, which is way too high in our view, but you never know.

On last stab at it; in the 10-Q we referenced seemingly a year-ago, management said they are upping production to "500 vehicles per week," translating into 6,571 EVs in Q3. That seems to be a realistic number in our view considering Google Trends and Tesla's early success in Norway. It would take about 500 sold outside of the US and Norway to hit the target.

If so, we are looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $540 million in revenue for Q3. Using Wall Street's projected net margin for the quarter, we arrive at EPS close to $0.12, which is more than the consensus by a penny, but less than the $0.14 iEstimate.

Overall: There are plenty of reasons to believe Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) will do a little to a lot better than Wall Street analysts expect. If we have made the correct call, then TSLA could put its recent poor, price performance in the rear-view mirror.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now

Millions of Baby Boomers are starting retirement with fewer financial resources than they had hoped for.

There are many reasons: Defined benefit plans are largely a thing of the past, many Boomers didn't save enough, and others lost their jobs unexpectedly.

Strapped to maintain their lifestyles, many have decided to look for a place to retire with lower taxes.

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But while no one wants to pay taxes, that priority could be misplaced. Here are 5 reasons to rethink that idea.

1. Life is short - enjoy yourself.

You have worked hard all your life. So why not think about retirement as a new adventure. When Topretirements.com recently asked its members what the best thing was about their retirement, none of the top 3 answers - having less stress, getting to do what I want, having more time - had anything to do with money. Keeping taxes low is desirable, but probably not as critical as finding a place to retire where you can enjoy the lifestyle and activities you've dreamed of.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: Heartland Financial USA Inc. (HTLF)

Heartland Financial USA, Inc., through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services to businesses and individuals. Its deposit products include checking and other demand deposit, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings, money market, individual retirement, and health savings accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and other time deposits. The company�s loan products portfolio comprises commercial and industrial, agricultural, real estate mortgage, consumer, and home equity loans, as well as lines of credit. It also offers ancillary services, including trust and wealth management services, investment services, insurance services, and electronic banking services, as well as provides client access to account information through business and personal online banking, bill payment, remote deposit capture, treasury management services, VISA debit cards ,and automated teller machines. The company�s investment services include mutual funds, annuitie s, retirement products, education savings products, brokerage services, employer sponsored plans, and insurance products, including vehicle, property and casualty, and life and disability insurance. In addition, Heartland Financial, through its non-bank subsidiary, Citizens Finance Co., engages in consumer finance business. The company has a strategic alliance with LPL Financial Institution Services to operate independent securities offices at its bank subsidiaries. As of May 4, 2012, it had 61 banking locations in 42 communities in Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Arizona, Montana, Colorado, and Minnesota; and mortgage loan production offices in California, Nevada, Texas, Wyoming, and Idaho. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Dubuque, Iowa.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: Meadowbrook Insurance Group Inc. (MIG)

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty commercial insurance underwriter and insurance administration services company in the United States. The company markets and underwrites specialty property and casualty insurance programs and products, including workers� compensation, general liability, commercial property, environmental, garage, commercial multi-peril, commercial auto, surety, and marine insurance on an admitted and non-admitted basis through a network of independent retail agents, wholesalers, program administrators, and general agents. It also offers program and product design, underwriting risk selection and policy issuance, claims administration and handling, loss prevention and control, risk-bearing entities administration, and retail property and casualty insurance agency services, as well as produces commercial, personal lines, life, and accident and health insurance with unaffiliated insurance carriers for its fe e-for-service and agency clients. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Southfield, Michigan.

Top Cheap Companies For 2015: Evercore Partners Inc(EVR)

Evercore Partners Inc. operates as an independent investment banking advisory firm. The company operates through two segments, Investment Banking and Investment Management. The Investment Banking segment offers advisory services on mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, and other strategic corporate transactions primarily for multinational corporations and private equity firms; and restructuring advice to companies in financial transition, as well as to creditors, shareholders, and potential acquirers. This segment also provides capital markets advice; underwrites securities offerings; raises funds for financial sponsors; and offers equity research and agency-only equity securities trading for institutional investors. The Investment Management segment manages financial assets for institutional investors; provides independent fiduciary services to corporate employee benefit plans; provides wealth management services for high net-worth individuals; manages private equity funds ; and offers specialized investment management and trustee services. The company operates primarily in the United States, Europe, and Latin America. Evercore Partners Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Sofia Horta e Costa]
Evraz (EVR) plunged 11 percent to 185.8 pence, the most since Russia�� biggest steelmaker began trading in London in November 2011. The company�� board of directors refrained from announcing a final dividend, citing deteriorating market environment and a weaker second-half performance.
[By David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer]
In this special "Best and Worst 2013" edition of The Motley Fool's everything-financials show, Where the Money Is, banking analysts David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer tell viewers why Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR ) crushed the market in 2013. Despite the increase in its valuation multiple, David thinks the small investment bank could be poised to continue producing strong returns.
[By Jonathan Levin]
The company began operations in 2006 and its fleet includes Airbus SAS single-aisle A319 and A320 jets. Owners include Indigo Partners LLC, Evercore Partners Inc. (EVR) and Evercore Co-Chairman Pedro Aspe, a former Mexico finance minister, according to the pre-IPO filing.
[By David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer]
In this segment from Thursday's episode of The Motley Fool's everything-financials show,�Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson go through a rapid-fire round of three top headlines. The newsmakers included�KKR (NYSE: KKR ) ,�Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) ,�Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) ,�Lazard (NYSE: LAZ ) , and�Evercore (NYSE: EVR ) .

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX)

National Australia Bank Limited provides products, advice and services. In Australia, it operates through National Australia Bank, MLC and UBank. In the United Kingdom, it operates through Clydesdale Bank. In New Zealand, it operates through Bank of New Zealand. In the United States, it operates through Great Western Bank. Segments include Business Banking, Personal Banking, Wholesale Banking, UK Banking and NZ Banking, MLC and NAB and Great Western Ban. As of April 5, 2012, the Company and its associated entities ceased to be a substantial holder in BlueScope Steel Limited. On May 17, 2012, it ceased to be a substantial holder in Spark Infrastructure Group and Sandfire Resources NL. As of August 24, 2012, the Company and its associated entities ceased to be holder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited. In September 2012, the Company and its associated entities have ceased to be a substantial holder in Incitec Pivot Limited, as of August 30, 2012.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: Safety Insurance Group Inc.(SAFT)

Safety Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides private passenger automobile insurance products primarily in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. The company?s private passenger automobile policies offer coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured?s car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured?s own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicles used for business purposes, including private passenger-type vehicles, trucks, tractors and trailers, insure individual vehicles, and commercial fleets; and homeowners policies, which provide coverage for losses to a dwelling and its contents from various perils, and coverage for liability to others arising from ownership or occupancy. It writes policies on homes, condominiums, and apartments. In addition, the company offers business owners policie s that cover apartments and residential condominiums, limited cooking restaurants, office condominiums, processing and services businesses, special trade contractors, and wholesaling businesses. Further, it provides commercial package policies, which offer property, general liability, crime, and inland marine insurance for business enterprises; personal umbrella policies that provide personal excess liability coverage over and above the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner?s insurance policies; and commercial umbrella policies to clients for whom the company underwrites commercial automobile and business owner policies. Additionally, the company underwrites dwelling fire insurance, inland marine coverage, and watercraft coverage. Safety Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Selena Maranjian]
Safety Insurance (NASDAQ: SAFT ) , also impressive among high dividend stocks, is a rather boring company that's good at what it does�-- offering auto insurance, primarily in New England. Recently yielding 4.7%, its dividend has grown by 8.5% annually over the past five years and 24% annually over the past decade. (Its last hike, last year, was 20%.) Its payout ratio is 67%, which is not too worrisome. Its forward P/E ratio of 11 compares favorably with the five-year average near 18, and its PEG ratio is an appealing 0.70, as well.
[By John Udovich]
Auto sales are booming and that�� good news for large cap auto insurer�the Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) along with small cap auto insurers Safety Insurance Group, Inc (NASDAQ: SAFT) and�Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) as they offer income to yield hungry investors as well as income in the form of dividends. Specifically, a Yahoo! Autos blog recently noted that last month, automakers sold 1.5 million new vehicles for the highest rate in years with�most industry forecasters expecting sales to�return to the level they hit before the 2008 recession of 16 million vehicles a year. The blog post then went on to note the three forces driving auto sales:

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: First Bancshares Inc.(FBSI)

First Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for the First Home Savings Bank that offers a range of community banking products and services in Missouri. It primarily engages in generating deposits and originating loans. The company?s deposit products include negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, money market accounts, regular savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and retirement savings plans. Its loan portfolio comprises real estate loans, such as residential mortgage, commercial real estate, land, and second mortgage loans; consumer loans, including automobile, recreational vehicles, mobile home, savings account, and various other consumer loans; and commercial business loans. As of February 14, 2012, the company operated from its home office in Mountain Grove and 10 full service offices in Marshfield, Ava, Gainesville, Sparta, Springfield, Theodosia, Crane, Galena, Kissee Mills, and Rockaway Beach, Missouri. First Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1 911 and is based in Mountain Grove, Missouri.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: Fort Dearborn Income Securities Inc. (FDI)

Fort Dearborn Income Securities, Inc. is a close ended fixed income mutual fund launched and managed by UBS Global Asset Management (Americas), Inc. It invests in the fixed income markets. The Fund invests primarily in investment grade long-term fixed income debt securities. Its investment portfolio comprises various industries, such as aerospace and defense, automobiles, beverages, capital markets, chemicals, commercial banks, commercial services and supplies, communications equipment, consumer finance, diversified financial services, telecommunication services, electric utilities, food and staples retailing, food products, gas utilities, household durables, insurance machinery, media, metals and mining, multi-utilities, multiline retail, oil and gas, paper and forest products, personal products, pharmaceuticals, real estate, road and rail, thrifts and mortgage finance, tobacco, and wireless telecommunication services. Fort Dearborn Income Securities, Inc. was formed in 1 972 and is domiciled in United States.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: Jeffersonville Bancorp(JFBC)

Jeffersonville Bancorp operates as the holding company for The First National Bank of Jeffersonville, a national-chartered bank that provides a range of commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, and municipalities. The company accepts various types of deposit products, including demand deposit accounts, interest-bearing transaction accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. It also offers residential real estate, commercial real estate, commercial business, consumer, and agricultural loans. The company serves customers in the Sullivan County, New York, as well as in some areas of adjacent counties in New York and Pennsylvania. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 11 branch offices in Bloomingburg, Eldred, Liberty, Loch Sheldrake, Monticello, Livingston Manor, Narrowsburg, Callicoon, Wurtsboro, White Lake, and Monticello. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Jeffersonville, New York.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: Northfield Bancorp Inc.(NFBK)

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for Northfield Bank that provides banking services primarily to individuals and corporate customers in Richmond and Kings Counties in New York, and Union and Middlesex Counties in New Jersey. Its deposit products include negotiable order of withdrawal and non-interest bearing checking accounts; savings accounts, including money market, passbook, and statement savings; and certificates of deposit comprising individual retirement accounts. The company?s loan products portfolio comprises construction and land loans, commercial and industrial loans, one-to four-family residential mortgage loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as loans to finance premiums on insurance policies, including commercial property and casualty insurance, and professional liability insurance. It also offers insurance products, as well as owns a real estate investment trust, which holds primarily mortgage loans and other real estate related investments. Northfield Bancorp operates through its home office in Staten Island, New York; its operations center located in Woodbridge, New Jersey; and additional 19 branch offices located in New York and New Jersey. The company was founded in 1887 and is based in Avenel, New Jersey. Northfield Bancorp, Inc. is a subsidiary of Northfield Bancorp, MHC.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Invest In Right Now: Firstbank Corporation(FBMI)

Firstbank Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services. It accepts checking, savings, and time deposits. The company also provides commercial, mortgage, agricultural, real estate, real estate mortgage, real estate construction, home improvement, automobile, and consumer loans. In addition, it offers trust, security brokerage, and title insurance services, as well as armored car services. The company operates 53 branch offices in central Michigan. Firstbank Corporation was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Alma, Michigan.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Louis Navellier]
A great example of these small banks with big potential is Firstbank Corp. (FBMI), a $155 million market-cap stock that operates 53 branch offices in central Michigan. Firstbank provides commercial banking products and services, including traditional deposit accounts and loans tailored to meet the needs of its business customers. FBMI also offers trust, security brokerage and title insurance services, and even armored car services. This bank stock has been rated an “A” all year, and the fundamentals just keep getting better. FBMI shares remain a “strong buy” at current prices.

Saturday, January 25, 2014

3 Stocks Under $10 Triggering Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

Orbitz Worldwide

Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) operates as an online travel company worldwide. This stock closed up 0.98% to $7.24 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $7.07-$7.25

52-Week Range: $2.68-$13.26

Thursday's Volume: 588,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 946,111

From a technical perspective, OWW trended modestly higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $7.03 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is starting to push shares of OWW within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if OWW manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $7.36 to $7.49 and then once it clears some past overhead resistance at $7.55 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in OWW as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $6.92 or at $6.85 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 946,111 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then OWW will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its gap-down-day high of $8.22 from last November. Any high-volume move above that level will then give OWW a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone that started at $9.59.

CBIZ

CBIZ (CBZ), a diversified services company, through its subsidiaries, provides professional business services, products, and solutions to businesses, individuals, governmental entities, and not-for-profit enterprises in the U.S and Canada. This stock closed up 0.43% to $9.25 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $9.10-$9.26

52-Week Range: $5.69-$9.40

Thursday's Volume: 453,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 443,482

From a technical perspective, CBZ spiked modestly higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $8.98 with above-average volume. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last two months, with shares moving between $8.52 on the downside and $9.40 on the upside. Shares of CBZ are now starting to move within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern. That breakout will hit if CBZ manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $9.29 to its 52-week high at $9.40 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CBZ as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $8.98 or above more key support at $8.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 443,482 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CBZ will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $12 to $13.

Camac Energy

Camac Energy (CAK) engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Africa and Asia. This stock closed up 6% to $1.59 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.48-$1.63

52-Week Range: $0.45-$1.64

Thursday's Volume: 869,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 346,774

From a technical perspective, CAK jumped sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $1.40 with strong upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of CAK within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if CAK manages to take out Thursday's high of $1.63 to its 52-week high at $1.64 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CAK as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $1.40 or at its 50-day moving average of $1.30 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 346,774 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then CAK will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $2 to $2.50.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Why First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG) Is Down Today

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG) was falling 9.72% to $9.34 on Friday after the company forecast 2014 earnings could fall under Wall Street estimates.

First Niagara reported that its fourth-quarter profit increased 27% to $77.7 million, but the company said its operating income in 2014 would fall between 72 cents a share and 75 cents a share. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expected on 79 cents a share.

"First Niagara is solid at its core, but we've been underperforming," Chief Executive Officer Gary Crosby, who became interim CEO in March and took the post permanently in December, told analysts on a conference call, according to Bloomberg. Expenses will likely rise, which should reflect "a combination of higher staffing to execute projects and to operate the new product and service platforms, as well as higher technology and depreciation expenses and professional fees."

Crosby added that the spending will to increased revenue in upcoming years.

5 Best Industrial Conglomerate Stocks To Own Right Now

The stock dropped as much as 12% on Friday, the biggest drop for the Buffalo-based company since Dec. 2008, according to Bloomberg.

TheStreet Ratings team rates First Niagara as a "buy" with a ratings score of B. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate FIRST NIAGARA FINANCIAL GRP (FNFG) a BUY. This is driven by multiple strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its compelling growth in net income, attractive valuation levels, good cash flow from operations, solid stock price performance and impressive record of earnings per share growth. Although the company may harbor some minor weaknesses, we feel they are unlikely to have a significant impact on results." Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows: The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has exceeded that of the S&P 500 and the Commercial Banks industry average. The net income increased by 35.5% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, rising from $58.38 million to $79.14 million. Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by 4024.50% to $200.54 million when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, FIRST NIAGARA FINANCIAL GRP has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of 20.97%. The strong earnings growth this company has enjoyed -- up -- has apparently played a role in driving up its share price by a solid 27.09%. In addition, the rise in the general market has likely contributed to this stock's strong performance during this past year.We feel that the stock's sharp appreciation over the last year has driven it to a price level which is now somewhat expensive compared to the rest of its industry. The other strengths this company shows, however, justify the higher price levels. FIRST NIAGARA FINANCIAL GRP has improved earnings per share by 42.9% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, FIRST NIAGARA FINANCIAL GRP reported lower earnings of $0.40 versus $0.65 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($0.75 versus $0.40). You can view the full analysis from the report here: FNFG Ratings Report

Stock quotes in this article: FNFG

Thursday, January 23, 2014

I Am Netflix's 'Bitch' and I Want It to Spank Me

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- There's no reason to go through a whole slew of "ifs" or "buts" or "just waits" on Netflix (NFLX). The time for that has passed.

The company blew out its most recent quarter. Apparently, Time Warner's (TWX) HBO is now Netflix's bitch. That's what Reed Hastings said so it must be true. Actually he said "Netflix bitch" referring to HBO CEO Richard Plepler's apparent HBO GO password, but, given the editorial clearance by Hastings to start using and playing on the word "bitch," the media took the ball and ran.

Sort of like it took the ball and ran with the wholly false NPD study that said people are ditching premium networks. The one that somehow led Business Insider's Jim Edwards to conclude that HBO has lost 15% of its subscriber base in the last few months. That's the height of misleading irresponsibility, journalistic criminality and plain doing math without actual numbers. The one that NPD had to retract.

Anyway, who am I to pass up the opportunity Hastings opened? If everybody else is doing it ... For what it's worth, I spoke with Plepler this morning. Actually, we emailed, but that's the same as "speaking" and "talking" in the modern digital era. Full disclosure: I consider Plepler a friend. The details of what he said to me are inconsequential to the takeaway that you shouldn't expect to see HBO enter into a pissing contest with Netflix. (I assume that slight of phrase is OK given the whole "bitch" thing, right?). Anyhow -- and this is me talking -- Reed Hastings is trying to create the perception of Netflix versus HBO as the Yankees versus the Red Sox or something like that. They're peers. Both play in the same very major league. It's a great and epic rivalry. That's an obvious move by Hastings. Reality has never meant much within the context of the Netflix story. But, clearly Hastings has succeeded. That said, you rarely see HBO engage in these public displays of relative immaturity. There's a reason for this. They're not the underdog. And their business is doing quite well. Better than ever in fact. Buzzfeed did a nice interview with Plepler the other week. There's lots in there worth listening to. No cursing. Very few one liners. Interestingly, Plepler speaks graciously and intelligently about Netflix at the very beginning ... on Page Two ... along with more analysis and Jim Cramer's take ...

Stock quotes in this article: NFLX, TWX, AMZN

That's pretty much what Plepler has been telling me for that last year or so.

I'm done trying to throw cold water on the Netflix story. I've already made enough of a fool of myself referring to off-balance sheet obligations (now north of $7 billion), the need for Netflix to do even more debt financing (another $400 million), feeble free cash flow (now at $5 million) and the reality that Hastings would give his right arm to license HBO programming. He probably blew up even the most remote possibility of that happening (it wasn't going to happen anyway) on Wednesday's conference call.

Anyhow, I like being wrong. Now I know how Amazon.com (AMZN) bears feel. But, more so, it's a humbling experience to do the work and, much to your surprise, not see the story play out the way you thought it would and on your timeline. As much as I want to disagree, TheStreet's Jim Cramer probably said it best in this video. What he's basically saying here is the Netflix story, while in different spaces, really isn't all that different from the Amazon story: That's life in this business. I'm the kind of guy who actually appreciates getting taken down a notch from time to time. I have been this way ever since I was a 24-year old, who got fired from the best job he ever had (until now) back in 1999 in Dallas, Texas. So if being Netflix's bitch keeps me humble and makes people tempted to get long the stock on the way to $400 wealthier, I'm all for it. I'll take the spanking and like it. Follow @rocco_thestreet --Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.

Stock quotes in this article: NFLX, TWX, AMZN Disclosure: TheStreet's editorial policy prohibits staff editors, reporters and analysts from holding positions in any individual stocks. Rocco Pendola is a columnist for TheStreet. Whenever possible, Pendola uses hockey, Springsteen or Southern California references in his work. He lives in Santa Monica.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Northrop Grumman's Secret Plan for (Bottom Half) Global Domination

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC ) has a problem.

In an era of shrinking defense budgets here at home, Northrop Grumman is the military contractor with the absolute worst record for getting people to buy its products abroad. In the race to diversify revenue streams away from the U.S., Boeing (NYSE: BA ) , with its mammoth civilian airliner business, is far and away the best diversified company in the defense industry -- drawing 54.5% of its revenues from abroad in 2012.

Even discounting Boeing as an "outlier," though, literally every other major defense firm in the U.S. far outclasses Northrop in the competition to win foreign business. Raytheon (NYSE: RTN ) , essentially a pure-play military contractor, gets more than $1 in $4 from abroad -- 25.5%. General Dynamics (NYSE: GD ) gets more than $1 in $5 (20.7%). Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) does 17.1% of its business internationally.

And Northrop's magic number: 6.6% .

With America's "sequester" in full swing, and defense budgets falling to the axe, that's a perilous position for Northrop to be in, having so much exposure to a shrinking U.S. defense budget. Yet you've got to hand it to them: By all indications, Northrop has finally recognized its problem. It's decided to do something about it. And what it's doing is trying to capture one of the fastest-growing defense markets on the globe.

How will they do it -- and to whom will they do it? Click through the slideshow below, and we'll lay it all out for you.

Top 10 Biotech Companies To Buy Right Now

And by the way -- if you're wondering what Northrop Grumman's success might mean to you, check out our new report on dividend stocks. Dividend stocks can make you rich, you see, and defense stocks offer some of the biggest dividends around. (Northrop's is a tidy 2.6%, and could get bigger as Northrop's business gets bigger). Over the long term, the compounding effect of the quarterly payouts, as well as their growth, adds up faster than most investors imagine. To find out how, click here now.

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Nucor Corporation (NUE) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Nucor Corporation (NUE). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Nucor Corporation is the largest minimill steelmaker in the U.S., Nucor has one of the most diverse product lines of any steelmaker in the Americas.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

NUE is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. The stock is trading at a 85.8% premium to its calculated fair value of $28.51. NUE did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

NUE earned one Star in this section for 2.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 40 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The negative NPV MMA Diff. means that on a NPV basis the dividend earnings from an investment in NUE would be less than a similar amount invested in MMA earning a 20-year average rate of 3.68%. If NUE grows its dividend at 0.7% per year, it will never equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.68%.

Memberships and Peers: NUE is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat, a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: Commercial Metals Company (CMC) with a 2.4% yield, Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) with a 2.3% yield and United States Steel Corp. (X) with a 0.7% yield.

Conclusion: NUE did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of one Star. This quantitatively ranks NUE as a 1-Star Very Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $29.17 before NUE's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 40 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 5.1%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 6.9%. This dividend growth rate is well above the 0.7% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. NUE has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

NUE is the largest U.S. steel producer with one of the most modern and efficient operations in the nation. The company has a diverse product mix. The industry should continue to consolidate leading to more stable pricing. NUE is exposed to cyclical markets such as non-residential construction.

Minimills, such as those operated by NUE, are able to quickly adjust production levels to meet demand. Its strategy is to become more vertically integrated which should generally produce less volatile production costs.

Financially, NUE has a very low ratio of debt to total capital. The stock is trading at a significant premium to my calculated fair value price of $28.51, and its free cash flow payout is now negative, down from 876%. This gives me great concern as to the sustainability of its dividend, so for now I will carefully monitor my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in NUE (2.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

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Friday, January 17, 2014

The financial feminine mystique backed by hard numbers

It might not be easy to find a woman to manage your assets, but it might be worth the effort to start looking.

The idea that women generally manage money and invest differently than their male counterparts is not a new finding, but a growing body of evidence suggests that those differences can add up to better performance.

“When you look at the way women tend to behave when managing money, it has a pretty profound impact on portfolio management,” said Meredith Jones, a director at consulting firm Rothstein Kass, which has been studying the influences of women portfolio managers for several years.

In a report released this week, Rothstein Kass found that the performance differential was particularly stark in hedge fund management.

Through the first 11 months of last year, an index of women alternative investment managers gained 9.8%, which compares with 6.1% for the broader HFRI Global Hedge Fund Index over the same period. The pattern was similar, but more dramatic, for the first 11 months of 2012, when the Rothstein Kass Women in Alternative Investments Hedge Fund Index gained 11%, while the HFRI gained 3.5%.

Over a six-and-a-half year period, from the time the report research began through June 2013, the woman-manager index gained 6%, while the HFRI declined 1.1%.

While it is tempting to sound the alarms for a reallocation to female portfolio managers, Ms. Jones and others are making no such claims.

For starters, of the more than 10,000 hedge funds, only about 125 have women running portfolio management.

But for those that have long fought for diversity in the asset management space, this kind of data represents solid support for such a campaign.

“What this kind of data does is dispel the notion that women don't belong in the hedge fund space,” said Dorothy Weaver, a highly regarded hedge fund manager and principal, chairman, chief executive and co-founder of Collins Capital Investments.

“If it just levels the playing field, it's a good thing, but at the end of the day, you still want to be picking hedge funds on a manager-by-manager basis,” she added. “This isn't the kind of research you can take out to seven decimal points and say, this is why you should invest with women, but what it does is start the conversation.”

While there seems to be endless studies and research distinguishing men from women when it comes to investing and asset management, Ms. Jones admits most of the research is far from scientific.

But the performance is what it is, and for that Ms. Jones relies on known and assumed gender characteristics for an explanation.“We call it the alpha component because we know there are differences in the way men and women think, and that can't exist only in social interactions,” she said. “For example, there are testosterone influences, which means that women are less likely to try and time the market, and they are also less likely to sell at the bottom.”

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According to the Rothstein Kass research, male investors will trade on average 45% more than their female counterparts. And when it comes to single men versus single women, men trade 67% more.

“We know that portfolio turnover is just one piece of the equation, but it can add up to performance differences,” Ms. Jones said.

Sheryl Pincus, owner of the financial advisory firm Sunrise Financial, described the Rothstein Kass data as just more evidence that the financial services industry needs more female professionals.

“The way women approach investing and risk taking is very different than the way men approach investing and risk taking, because men are more likely to be looking for a fast buck and women are more willing to hang on and stay the course,” she said. “I never really thought about it before, but I suppose the biggest problem is the lack of women in the business.”

Of course, just like too much risk can be detrimental, so can extreme risk aversion.

A November report by BlackRock detailed how genders tend to respond differently to risk, with women generally being more risk-averse. Among the takeaways was that too much risk aversion can lead to underperformance.

Ms. Jones sees the gender-specific performance data as evidence that the gender of portfolio managers should be considered among other data points and diversification characteristics.

“There's a movement, particularly in the public pension world, to look at diversity in portfolio management, and there's ! a growing! body of research that suggests women manage money differently than men,” she said. “But this issue has now gone from being a simple question of diversity to whether you can get additional alpha through that diversity, and that's a good thing because women still want to be selected because they're the best, not just because they're women.”

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Campus Crest Forms JV to Enter Canada - Analyst Blog

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Campus Crest Communities Inc. (CCG) – a real estate investment trust (REIT) recently disclosed a joint venture (JV) with Beaumont Partners SA for foraying into the Montréal Student Housing Market. The JV purchased the 33-story Delta Centre-Ville Hotel in downtown Montréal, Québec for approximately $60 million. The move comes as part of its efforts to expand its operational footprint.

The JV plans to convert the hotel into a student housing tower and seek redevelopment financing later this year. The renovation is scheduled to be accomplished by the fall of 2014 with leasing to commence in the fall of 2013. Campus Crest, which currently has a 20% stake in the JV, has made the purchase at a discount to the replacement cost.

Advantageously positioned above the Square-Victoria Metro Station stop, this property enjoys easy access to the McGill University, Concordia University and L'École de Technologie Supérieure - a part of the Université du Québec network - serving over 81,500 full-time students. As per the JV, Campus Crest will serve as a property manager.

We expect this JV acquisition to be a strategic fit for the company, given the property's premium location. Moreover, this project in Canada represents Campus Crest's second urban, high-rise development, the first being a JV to develop a 33-storied student housing tower in University City, Philadelphia. This 850-bed facility is slated to be completed in the fall of 2014.

Campus Crest, which currently has a Zacks Rank # 2 (Buy), is a developer, builder, owner and manager of high-quality, purpose-built student housing properties located close to campuses in targeted U.S. markets. The company rents student housing properties, offers student housing services and provides construction, development and management services.

A number of other REITs that are also performing well and d! eserve look are Avalonbay Communities Inc. (AVB), Camden Property Trust (CPT) and Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS). All these stocks carry a Zacks Rank # 2.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Going Naked Has Its Place, Just Not in Options

I don't like trading opens stand alone, outright, or as it's sometimes called, naked.

The problem with buying options outright is that you can get the direction right and still lose money. That's because time decay works against you. I often lecture on trading options in three dimensions, with only one of them being direction. That's the What. The other two dimensions being time, the When, and Velocity, the how fast.

You can be right on the what, be wrong on the other two and lose money. Let's say you're bearish on Google (GOOG), now trading at 1142. You think it will be 1100 by the February expiration and you buy the Feb 1100 put. And, you're right, it goes to 1100 but it goes there very slowly. Don't forget, the 1100 put is still worthless at expiration with GOOG at 1100.

It's far better to trade in the form of a spread. Let's say you buy the 1100-900 vertical put spread. Your entry level price is much reduced, which acts as a buffer. Now, a vertical spread will cap your profits as the 1100-900 put spread can never be worth more than 20. But, hey, that's how trading works. You cap your risk means capping your reward.

Speaking of capping your risk, selling options outright, or naked, means an unlimited risk exposure. With the maximum reward being the premium you collect. I never advise taking on any position with unlimited risk exposure. So, once again, trade in the form of a spread.

Let's say you think GOOG will stay right around 1140 until expiration. You can sell the february 1140 straddle naked at 73, or $7300 per straddle. Admittedly, that's a lot of money. But, that's all you can make and your risk is unlimited.

So, if you buy the Feb 1220 call at 10 and the Feb 1020 put at 5 (the strangle at 15), you make 58, $5800, instead, but your risk is capped.

In conclusion, while we all like being naked now and again, being naked in options trading is not the way to be.

........

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The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Posted-In: Options Markets

Originally posted here...

Most Popular Earnings Expectations For The Week Of January 13: Big Banks, GE, Intel And More ETFs Poised For Apple Rally (AAPL, IYW, XLK, QQQ, GOOG, MSFT) China Gold Stone Mining Reports Cash Tender Bid for Allied Nevada Shares, Tendering Holders Will Be Paid $7.50/Share in Cash UPDATE: JMP Securities Reiterates Coverage on ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Sees Market Share Regain UPDATE: Stifel Downgrades Cree on Recent Performance Coming Soon: 3D Printing For Everyone Related Articles () L&L Selected Ernst & Young Advisory Services to Support its Independent investigation Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Tuesday January 14, 2014 IHS Inc. Announces Pricing of Secondary Public Offering of Class A Common Stock at $116 per Share Google's Deal to Purchase Nest Labs Sends a Surge Through the Home Automation Industry Document Security Systems Provides Update on Stay of Proceedings for VirtualAgility and Bascom Research Cases Macquarie Infrastructure Announces No Performance Fee Payable for Q4 2013 Around the Web, We're Loving... Lightspeed Trading Presents: Thunder and Tubleweeds: Trading Techniques for the New Market Enviroment Pope Francis Rips 'Trickle-Down' Economics Come See How the Pro's Trade in this Exclusive Webinar Wynn, MGM, Other Casino Giants Vying For U.S. Turf What Should You Know About AMZN? View the discussion thread. Partner Network View upcoming Earnings, Ratings, Dividend and Economic Calendars. //

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Can General Mills Regain Its Momentum?

With shares of General Mills (NYSE:GIS) trading at around $48.33, is GIS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock's Movement

You ate Cheerios as a baby. When you were a little older, you sifted through Lucky Charms in order to make sure all the marshmallows were saved for last. It was so delicious that you had to go for a second bowl. Maybe even a third bowl! A little later in life, you ate Wheaties because it was the breakfast of champions. For sweet treats, you dreamed of Pillsbury cake or Betty Crocker brownies. Salivating yet?

There are two points here. One, General Mills has many quality brands to its name. Two, many of these brands are household names. When brand recognition is that strong, future prospects are good. But this is far from the only positive.

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Revenue has consistently improved on an annual basis, and 2012 was especially impressive. Looking at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, revenue increased 12.20 percent. Earnings declined 11.40 percent, but there fluctuations should be expected. What's most important is that General Mills consistently delivers profits. General Mills has increased its dividend for 10 consecutive years and buybacks are commonplace. Actually, General Mills plans on returning more cash to shareholders in the near future.

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In regards to company culture, it's very strong. According to Glassdoor.com, employees have rated their employer a 4.0 of 5, and 88 percent of employees would recommend the company to a friend. The leadership is even more impressive as 95 percent of employees approve of CEO Ken Powell.

There has to be a substantial negative somewhere! What about analysts? Nope, you won't find many negatives there. Analysts like the stock: 12 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Underperform.

But is the stock resilient in bear markets? Yes. General Mills dropped approximately 20 percent in 2008/2009, which was nothing compared to the drops most stocks throughout the broader market. Most investors would have popped open a bottle of champagne to celebrate if their top holding dropped 20 percent at that time. Kellogg Company (NYSE:K) also dropped approximately 20 percent at the time. However, ConAgra Foods dropped approximately 40 percent.

Currently, General Mills is trading at 18 times earnings whereas Kellogg is trading at 25 times earnings, and ConAgra is trading at 28 times earnings. General Mills has the most impressive margins of the three. For example, General Mills has a profit margin of 10.41 percent whereas Kellogg has a profit margin of 6.30 percent, and ConAgra has a profit margin of 3.48 percent. General Mills is a winner another area, which is yield. General Mills currently yields 3.20 percent whereas Kellogg yields 2.80 percent, and ConAgra yields 3.00 percent.

General Mills recently upped its FY 2013 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.68-$2.69 from $2.66-$2.68. Growth expectation for 2014 was also maintained at the high single-digit range.

Believe it or not, there are negatives for General Mills. The listed negatives have been increased competition, high commodity prices, and volume pressures due to high prices. However, looking at those a little closer, there is really only one negative that's cause for concern, which is high prices.

Many public and private companies have been laying off employees in order to improve their bottom lines. This has to be done because top-line growth is suffering in many cases. In some situations, employees are asked to take a pay cut. Either way, this leads to a weaker consumer. Some consumers will opt for more generic brands that will allow them to cut their own costs. That said, General Mills customers tend to be loyal.

As far as increased competition goes, General Mills has proven it can handle all threats for many decades. And when it comes to commodity prices, they're only heading in one direction, which is down. This is good news because it will cut costs for General Mills, but it's also bad news because it signifies a decline in global demand in many areas.

Let's take a look at some important numbers prior to forming an opinion on this stock.

T = Technicals Are Mixed

General Mills has been a solid performer over the past three years, but the past month has been subpar.

	1 Month	Year-To-Date	1 Year	3 Year
GIS	-3.19%	21.32%	30.54%	39.93%
K	-1.14%	14.64%	33.85%	27.81%
CAG	-2.41%	17.04%	38.73%	50.55%

Looking at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, General Mills is trading below its 50-day SMA, but still above its 200-day SMA.

50-Day SMA	49.37
200-Day SMA	45.42

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E = Equity to Debt Ratio Is Normal

The debt-to-equity ratio for General Mills is close to the industry average of 0.80. It’s much stronger than the debt-to-equity ratio for the peers listed below.

	Debt-To-Equity	Cash	Long-Term Debt
GIS	0.95	751.20M	8.06B
K	2.66	252.00M	7.56B
CAG	2.07	723.80M	10.68B

E = Earnings Have Been Steady

Earnings dropped in 2012, but that number was still an improvement over 2009 and 2010. As far as revenue goes, it has consistently improved on an annual basis.

Fiscal Year	2009	2010	2011	2012
Revenue ($) in millions	14,691	14,797	14,880	16,658
Diluted EPS ($)	1.90	2.24	2.70	2.35

Looking at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, revenue and earnings both improved.

Quarter	May. 31, 2012	Aug. 31, 2012	Nov. 30, 2012	Feb. 28, 2013
Revenue ($) in millions	4,066.40	4,051	4,881.80	4,430.60
Diluted EPS ($)	0.49	0.82	0.82	0.60

Now let's take a look at the next page for the Conclusion. Is this stock an OUTPERFORM, a WAIT AND SEE, or a STAY AWAY?

Conclusion

General Mills has proven that it can grow and deliver profits during good economic times, and that it can weather any storms during bad economic times. All the while, investors collect generous dividend payments.